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Apart from Nebraska and Maine, all other 48 states plus the District of Columbia are winner take all states. In the 48 winner-take-all states, all their electoral votes go to the candidate who wins the popular vote in the state. Effect of Winner Take All States in U.S. ElectionsCustomarily, the presidential candidate who wins the popular vote in a winner-takes-all state gets all the electoral votes. A candidate needs to gather a majority of the electoral votes to win the presidential election. There’s a total of 538 electoral votes. Therefore, a candidate needs to garner 270 votes to become president. This is to say that the votes of the Electoral College decide who becomes president. Let's explore the allocation of electoral votes in the 48 winner takes all states, including the District of Columbia. Number of Electoral Votes The only two states that don’t follow the winner take it all system, Nebraska and Maine, have five and four electoral votes each. Nebraska - 5 votes. Maine - 4 votes. In Maine and Nebraska, the electoral votes are proportionally distributed based on a candidate’s performance in each congressional district and the state-wide performance. Drawbacks of the Winner-take-all System.1. Under-representation of the MinorityIn voting districts with a substantial population of minorities, they are severely under-represented in a winner-take-all system. Even if their preferred candidate wins the popular vote nationally but loses in their state, their votes will not count. Minorities voting in a state dominated by one political viewpoint in a winner take all state may never have their say unless they subscribe to the prevalent ideology. Being minorities, the popular political view may not accommodate their interests. 2. Even the Majority may Lose in a Winner-Take-All SystemIn a winner-take-all system, even the majority may not have their way sometimes. A candidate can win the popular vote nationally but lose the electoral vote and fail to clinch the presidency besides getting the most votes. This happened in the 2016 and 2000 elections. 3. It Fosters Under VotingPeople living in winner take all states may not be motivated to vote, more so if they don’t share the popular opinion in their state. Since it’s already pre-determined that the electoral votes will go to the candidate who gets the popular vote in the state, those who support a different candidate may be dispirited to vote. From Ballotpedia
Winner-take-all or winner-takes-all is an electoral system in which a single political party or group can elect every office within a given district or jurisdiction.[1] Winner-take-all is contrasted with proportional representation, in which more than one political party or group can elect offices in proportion to their voting power. Winner-take-all voting methodsAlthough proportional and semi-proportional voting methods are used in the United States, winner-take-all voting methods remain the norm. There are several such winner-take-all voting methods used in the United States:
Differences between winner-take-all and proportional representationThere are a few apparent differences between a winner-take-all system and a proportional representation system:
Winner-take-all and the Voting Rights ActBecause winner-take-all elections allow the single largest politically cohesive group to elect every office in a jurisdiction, they may result in racial minority vote dilution in places where voting is racially polarized. For that reason, they may be illegal under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Such vote dilution is typically remedied by drawing or redrawing district lines for single-winner districts and including at least one district in which the racial minority population will be able to elect a candidate of choice. In some cases, however, vote dilution is remedied by changing the winner-take-all voting method to a proportional or semi-proportional voting method.[5]
Many who dislike the winner-take-all Electoral College argue that its bias toward small states is unfair. That’s because each state is awarded electoral votes based on the number of representatives it has in the House, which is roughly proportionate to its population, plus the number of U.S. Senators, which is the same for all states. That means of the 538 total electoral votes, 81% are awarded by population while 19% are awarded equally. Nate Cohn explains the circumstances where this modest bias can prove decisive:
But this small-state bias actually had little to do with Donald Trump’s win in the 2016 election. Trump actually won seven of the 10 largest states, and Hillary Clinton won seven of the 12 smallest states. Overall, the bias towards smaller states only cost Clinton about four votes, which was not enough to change the outcome of the election. Instead, a more important bias comes from the (mostly) winner-take-all Electoral College and how states award their votes to each candidate. We Evolved to a Winner-Take-All Electoral CollegeWhat most interesting about our current system for selecting a president is that it’s an unintended quirk that isn’t even mentioned in the U.S. Constitution. States determine how they select their electors. In fact, for the first 13 presidential elections, states experimented with many different electoral systems. By 1832, every state except South Carolina awarded its electors by the popular vote, although not all states followed the winner-take-all custom that emerged later. Since 1868, every state has awarded its electors in a way related to that state’s popular vote tally. Today there are two states that do not use a winner-take-all approach: Nebraska and Maine, which split some of their electoral votes by the winner of each congressional district. They assign two votes to the plurality winner of the state’s popular vote. These two votes represent the two electoral votes they are entitled to from their U.S. Senate delegations. The other electoral votes in these states are given to the plurality winner of the popular vote in each separate U.S. House of Representatives district. That shows that states could, if they wanted, create an electoral system that better reflected the popular vote. For instance, they could decide — as many states have already planned through an interstate compact — to award a state’s electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote. Of course, there are strong incentives to not move away from a winner-take-all allocation for the same reason they moved to the system in the first place: It would dilute their power in the election of the president. The winner-take-all system came about because of partisan power. Once some states came to this conclusion, others had no choice but to follow to avoid hurting their side. The Electoral College Is Biased Towards Larger BattlegroundsSo while the Electoral College was designed with a built-in small state bias, it isn’t nearly as big as the advantage that a winner-take-all system gives to the larger battleground states. We saw this clearly in the 2016 presidential election. Trump won the election because his political coalition was efficiently distributed among the Midwestern battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. He won each of those states by a narrow margin, but was able to claim all of their electoral votes. |