Polling suggests what about the views of the top 1% versus the general public?

Who really matters in our democracy — the general public, or wealthy elites? That's the topic of a recent study by political scientists Martin Gilens of Princeton and Benjamin Page of Northwestern. The study's gotten lots of attention over the past year, because the authors conclude, basically, that the US is a corrupt oligarchy where ordinary voters barely matter. Or as they put it, "economic elites and organized interest groups play a substantial part in affecting public policy, but the general public has little or no independent influence."

But can that be right? Let's walk through the study and explain what it shows.

What does their study measure, exactly?

Gilens and "a small army of research assistants" compiled nearly 2,000 polls and surveys that asked for opinions about a proposed policy change. Since he wanted to separate out the preferences of economic elites and average citizens, he only used surveys that asked about respondents' income. He found 1,779 poll results that fit that description, spanning from 1981 to 2002. Then he took the answers of median-income voters to represent what average voters think, and the answers of respondents at the 90th income percentile to represent what economic elites think.

Next, the authors had to measure what interest groups thought about all of those issues. They decided to use Fortune magazine's yearly "Power 25" lists of the most influential lobbying groups, but since it "seemed to neglect certain major business interests," they added the ten industries that had reported the most spending on lobbying. Their final list includes 29 business groups, several major unions, and other well-known interest groups like the AARP, the Christian Coalition, the NRA, the American Legion, and AIPAC. Each interest group's position on those 1,779 policy change proposals were coded, along with how strongly each group felt about each proposal. The results were combined to assess how interest groups in general, felt.

Finally, they wanted to measure which of those 1,779 proposed policy changes actually happened. To do so, "Gilens and his research assistants spent many hours poring over news accounts, government data, Congressional Quarterly publications, academic papers, and the like."

When the authors look only at the preferences of average citizens, it appears that they do have a pretty big effect on policy change. But when they add the preferences of economic elites and interest groups to the analysis, the impact of average citizens vanishes entirely. Basically, average citizens only get what they want if economic elites or interest groups also want it.

In contrast, the preferences of economic elites and interest groups — especially economic elites — are each quite influential, when the preferences of the other two groups are held constant.

Are there charts that can help explain this?

Yes, check out these charts from Gilens and Page below, edited slightly for clarity. This first one shows that as more and more average citizens support an issue, they're not any more likely to get what they want. That's a shocking finding in a democracy:

In contrast, the next charts show that as more and more economic elites and interest groups want a certain policy change, they do become more likely to get what they want:

Specifically, if fewer than 20 percent of wealthy Americans supported a policy change, it only happened about 18 percent of the time. But when 80 percent of them were in support, the change ended up happening 45 percent of the time. There's no similar effect for average Americans.

Why does the study look at what the top 10 percent wealthiest Americans want, rather than what billionaires want?

There isn't sufficient survey data on the preferences of the ultrawealthy, so Gilens and Page settle for using respondents from the 90th income percentile — people who made $146,000 a year in 2012 dollars. But the authors argue that, if anything, using such an "imperfect measure" strengthens their arguments. Since they found such strong effects even here, they write, "it will be reasonable to infer that the impact upon policy of truly wealthy citizens is still greater."

Gilens uses survey responses to represent voters' preferences on issues, and he was criticized for this when his last book came out, in 2012. "Is it meaningful when public opinion is split between budget proposals no one understands?" wrote Harvard professor Nancy Rosenblum. UCLA professor Barbara Sinclair added, "Cutting the deficit is broadly supported, but there are few government programs — other than foreign aid — that a majority of Americans favor cutting. Sometimes it is literally impossible to follow public opinion."

It's also not clear that a democracy should necessarily be doing the bidding of the average voter on most issues. "The purpose of a political system is to resolve political questions in a satisfactory way … the watchword of democracy should not be responsiveness but rather accountability," Matt Yglesias wrote.

Economist Tyler Cowen of George Mason University made a similar point: "Many lower- or middle-income voters decide to vote retrospectively over outcomes … That suggests we should judge the responsiveness of the system in terms of how well it aims toward those outputs, not whether it gives lower-income voters their preferred policy inputs." So for instance, average people might vote on whether politicians have produced economic prosperity, not necessarily on what specific policies they chose to get there. A system that was listening to average voters, in this model, would be a system that produced prosperity, not that followed public whims on individual issues.

You've come to the right place! Check out our articles on "The doom loop of oligarchy," Thomas Piketty's book about global wealth, and our video about this study below:

December 1, 2021

A national poll of America’s 18- to 29-year-olds released today by the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School indicates that a majority of young Americans believe that our democracy is “in trouble” or “failing.” While most young Biden voters are satisfied with their vote, President Biden’s job approval (46%) has dropped 13 percentage points among young Americans since the IOP’s Spring 2021 Poll, including a 10-point drop among young Democrats and 14-point drop among Independents.

For over twenty years, the Harvard Public Opinion Project has provided the most comprehensive look at the political opinions, voting trends, and views on public service held by young Americans. The Fall 2021 survey of 2,109 young Americans between 18- and 29-years-old, conducted between October 26 and November 8, includes young Americans’ concerns on their mental health, COVID-19, climate change, and foreign policy.

“In the 2020 election, young Americans proved with their record-shattering turnout that they are a formidable voting bloc and eager to make their voices heard,” said IOP Director Mark Gearan '78. “Our political leaders on both sides of the aisle would benefit tremendously from listening to the concerns that our students and young voters have raised about the challenges facing our democracy and their genuine desire for our parties to find common ground on solutions.”

“After turning out in record numbers in 2020, young Americans are sounding the alarm. When they look at the America they will soon inherit, they see a democracy and climate in peril -- and Washington as more interested in confrontation than compromise,” said IOP Polling Director John Della Volpe. “Despite this, they seem as determined as ever to fight for the change they seek.”

"Right now, young Americans are confronting worries on many fronts. Concerns about our collective future ​​– with regard to democracy, climate change, and mental health – also feel very personal,” said Jing-Jing Shen '23, Student Chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project (HPOP). “Yet, amidst all of this uncertainty, and especially coming out of the isolation imposed by the pandemic, young people have come to even more deeply value their communities and connections with others, not only in contending with these crises but also in striving for a meaningful life."

Top findings of this survey, the 42nd in the biannual series, include the following:

1. A majority (52%) of young Americans believe that our democracy is either “in trouble,” or “failing” 

• Only 7% of young Americans view the United States as a “healthy democracy”; 27% described the nation as a “somewhat functioning democracy,” 39% a “democracy in trouble,” and 13% went so far as to declare the nation a “failed democracy.” 
• While Democrats are divided (44% healthy/somewhat functioning and 45% in trouble/failed) about the health of our democracy, 70% of Republicans believe that we are either a democracy in trouble (47%) or failed (23%). A majority (51%) of independent and unaffiliated young Americans also say we are in trouble or failed. 
• Overall, 57% of all 18- to 29- year-olds say that it is “very important” that America is a democracy while another 21% say it’s “somewhat important.” Seven percent (7%) say either “not very” or “not at all important,” while 13% don’t know. Seventy-one percent (71%) of college graduates agree that it is “very important” that America is a democracy, but only 51% of those not currently in college, or without a college degree say the same.

2. Young Americans place the chances that they will see a second civil war in their lifetime at 35%; chances that at least one state secedes at 25%

• Nearly half (46%) of young Republicans place the chances of a second civil war at 50% or higher, compared to 32% of Democrats, and 38% of independent and unaffiliated voters. Level of education (27% among college students and those with degrees compared to 47% for others) and whether young people live in urban (33%), suburban (33%), rural (48%) or small town (51%) environments are all significant predictors. 
• Similar patterns hold for those who think secession is likely. Overall, 25% rate the chances at 50% or greater.

3. Half of young Americans say they’re a different person because of Covid-19

• Fifty percent (50%) of 18- to- 29-year-olds say that Covid-19 has changed them -- 14% say they have become a very different person while 37% say they are somewhat of a different person. Females (61% different) are far more likely than males (40%) to say they have changed. Politically, Democrats (60%) are more likely than Republicans (39%) to say Covid-19 has impacted them in this way. 
• Overall, 51% say that the Covid-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on their life. One-third (33%) say that the coronavirus has not had a major impact one way or the other, while 15% say the effect Covid-19 had on them was positive. Unlike most other issues in this survey, there was no partisan divide: 51% of Democrats, 51% of Republicans, and 52% of independents say that the Covid-19 pandemic had a negative impact on their life.

4. Biden approval drops to 46% among young Americans; a majority of youth disapprove of the way President Biden, Democrats, and Republicans in Congress are handling their jobs

• Among young Democrats, President Biden’s job approval stands at 75% (-10 since Spring 2021), and it is 39% among independents (-14), and 9% among Republicans (-13). 
• President Biden receives the highest approval rating for his handling of the Coronavirus (51% approve), his lowest rating comes from his handling of gun violence (34%). 
• Still, 78% of those who voted for Biden in 2020 say they are satisfied with their vote.
• Forty-six percent (46%) also view President Biden favorably and 44% unfavorably; the favorability ratings of others included in the survey are: Bernie Sanders at 46% favorable / 34% unfavorable; Kamala Harris 38% favorable / 41% unfavorable; Nancy Pelosi 26% favorable / 48% unfavorable; Donald Trump, 30% favorable / 63% unfavorable.

5. More than half (51%) of young Americans report having felt down, depressed, and hopeless -- and 25% have had thoughts of self-harm -- at least several times in the last two weeks 

• In addition to the majority of youth who express depressive symptoms, and the 25% who express thoughts of self-harm, we also found that a significant number of young Americans are bothered by traits associated with generalized anxiety disorder. 
  • 38% of young Americans report feeling nervous, anxious, or on edge in the last two weeks
  • 36% have been worrying too much about different things
  • 32% have been easily annoyed or irritable
  • 30% have had trouble relaxing
  • 22% report feeling afraid as if something awful might happen
  • 20% have not been able to stop or control worrying
  • 16% have been so restless that it is hard to sit still
• School or work (34%), personal relationships (29%), self-image (27%), economic concerns (25%), and the coronavirus (24%) are the five most popular responses given when asked about the impact on mental health. Politics and social media each were cited by 17% of survey respondents. Young females (22% compared to 13% for males) were significantly more likely to cite social media as a problem; young people living in the suburbs (22%) were more likely than others to say the same. 
• Additionally, young Americans believe that they are more worried about the country’s future than their parents. We found that 34% believe that they are more concerned than their parents, and only 19% note they feel less concerned. Slightly more than a third (35%) indicate they think about the country in the same way, while 11% don’t know.

6. A majority (56%) of young Americans expect climate change to impact their future decisions -- and nearly half (45%) already see its local effects

• One of the greatest predictors of partisanship is how young Americans view the impacts of climate change: 60% of Democrats, but only 23% of Republicans, say climate change has already impacted their local community; 74% of Democrats say that it will impact future decisions they make; less than one-third (32%) of young Republicans say the same.

• When controlling for geography/location, Democrats and Republicans still view the effects of climate differently. Among those living in suburbs, 62% of Democrats and 25% of Republicans say climate change has already impacted their local community; the same pattern holds for young people living in urban (65% Democrat, 38% Republican), rural (49% Democrat, 16% Republican), and small town (49% Democrat, 16% Republican) America.

• Despite partisan views about its current impact, large numbers of Democrats (71%) and Republicans (52%) believe that individual actions like “changing behavior lifestyle choices can be effective means to address climate change.

7. More than half of young Americans believe that the federal government is not doing enough to address climate change

• A solid majority (55%) of young Americans believe the U.S. government is not doing enough to address climate change, including 68% of college graduates, 56% of college students, and 50% of those without a college degree. More than seven-in-ten (71%) Democrats don’t think the government is doing enough, compared to 27% of Republicans, and 56% of independents. Fourteen percent (14%) say that the government is doing “too much to address climate change,” while 12 percent think it is “just about the right amount.”

• Among a list of nine adjectives offered, “worried” was the most common word (selected by 54%) used to describe young Americans’ feelings about climate change. This was followed by anxious (41%), sad (29%), hopeless (23%), uninterested (22%), angry (21%), hopeful (20%), over-hyped (15%), and inspired (8%).

8. Strengthening the economy, uniting the country, and improving health care are viewed as keys to a successful presidency in the eyes of young Americans

• More than 40% of young Americans prioritize these three issues from a list that also included climate change, income inequality, education, social justice, and improving America’s standing in the world. 
• Overall, one-third (33%) say the Biden administration is on its way to a successful presidency, 38% say it’s off on the wrong track -- while 28% are unsure at this time.

9. By a margin of more than 2-to-1, young Americans value compromise over confrontation

• A plurality across every major subgroup measured preferred that “Elected officials meet in the middle –– at the expense of my preferred policy priorities,” compared to “Elected officials pursue my preferred policy priorities –– at the expense of compromise.
• Democrats agreed with the sentiment of meeting “in the middle,” 49% to 26% and Republicans agreed 45% to 23%. Self-described liberals agreed, 43% to 31%, conservatives 44% to 21%.

10. American Exceptionalism is a highly divisive issue among young Americans, less than one-third believe that “America is the greatest country in the world”

• Overall, half of young Americans believe that there are “other nations as great or greater than America,” while 31% say that America is the greatest country -- with nearly a fifth (18%) saying they don’t know.  
• The views of Democrats and Republicans are inverted with 21% of Democrats saying America is the greatest country and 64% saying other nations are as great or greater; 62% of Republicans believe that America is the greatest with 24% saying other nations are as great or greater.
• When young Americans are asked what they think the primary motivation of U.S. foreign policy should be, we found that “promoting international peace and human rights” to be the top choice (27%), followed by ensuring U.S. national security (18%), addressing climate change (12%), and promoting U.S. economic interests (11%). 
• The priorities of young Americans are at odds with what they believe current foreign policy priorities are: 19% cited economic interests as the top driver of U.S. policy abroad, followed by 12% who said ensuring our national security, and 10% who said promoting international peace and human rights.
• Nine months into the Biden Administration, 41% reported that the U.S. standing on the world stage improved, 34% say it worsened, while 24% don’t see it changing.