What is the most likely day to die

The depressing realization that all New Year’s resolutions have already been abandoned is far from the worst feature about January 1.

It just so happens that the first day of every year is also the deadliest.

Various studies have shown that self-harm, homicides, and car accidents spike on New Year’s Day. But in 2010, UC San Diego sociology professor David Phillips investigated whether the date itself was a risk factor for death. As the Washington Post reports, the answer, unfortunately, is yes—but we still don’t know why.

Social Science & Medicine

Phillips examined more than 57 million official US death certificates, issued over 25 years from 1979 to 2004, and found that deaths from natural causes peaks on New Year’s Day.

A rise in drink and drug abuse can’t be the cause writes Phillips in his paper, published in the journal Social Science & Medicine, as the mortality spikes aren’t significantly different when you exclude those whose deaths were linked with substance abuse.

Seasonal cold weather and wintry illnesses, such as influenza, can also be disregarded as a cause, as Jan. 1 sees a distinct rise in deaths compared to other equally cold and virus-riddled days in the month.

Phillips examined several other hypotheses and, though some seem more plausible than others, none have enough evidence to fully explain the spike.

Some theorize that people may try to postpone death to reach symbolic events, such as family Christmas festivities or the start of the New Year. However, writes Phillips, there’s no drop in deaths ahead of New Year, which suggests that postponement isn’t particularly successful.

It might be possible that psychological stress shifts suddenly on New Year’s Day. But Phillips says there’s not enough evidence to verify this theory. “We have no nationwide, detailed, rigorous measures of the size, nature, and timing of these putative change,” he writes. “In addition, we know of no unambiguous evidence that heightened psychological stresses can cause abrupt, sharp increases in mortality from a wide range of diseases and for a wide range of demographic groups.”

There is more evidence support the belief that, as medical professionals take time off over the holidays, Emergency Departments are overcrowded, leading to an increase in deaths. Phillips noted a particularly large spike in natural deaths from illnesses that require immediate attention, suggesting that Emergency Department overcrowding could be a contributing factor, as patients are less likely to receive the necessary help. And the spike in New Year’s death has increased over the past 25 years, which correlates with the rise in Emergency Department overcrowding.

But there are other “holiday related-changes in medical care,” writes Phillips. “For example, medical professionals may increasingly suspend work during the holidays and/or patients may increasingly avoid hospital visits during the holidays.”

Phillips tells the Washington Post that some people may ignore serious symptoms over the holidays so that they can spend time with their families, which is a “very foolish thing to do.”

So no matter how much you’re enjoying the countdown to midnight, don’t wait until the clock strikes twelve to get medical help. Some health issues just can’t wait until next year.

The New Year is upon us, and with the memory of Christmas fading fast, we have another reason to feel glum - tomorrow is the day of the dead.

That is January 6, or the day that you are most likely to die.

Since 2005, more people have died on this day than any other.

On average, 1,732 people die on the 6th day of the year, which is 25 percent more than the daily average.

And startlingly, the top 10 most common days to die all fall between December 30 and January 9.

New Years Eve a popular day to depart

According to figures from the Office for National Statistics, December 31 has been the most common day to day four times in the last 13 years, including every other year since 2012.

But trailing January 6 is January 5, which averages just three fewer fatalities.

The cold winter weather is almost certainly a contributing factor, with January typically vying with February as the coldest month of the year. Immune systems running low due to the weather can make people more vulnerable to infections and illnesses that can, in turn, result in fatalities.

By contrast, the research found that July 30 is the least likely day to die, with just 1,208 deaths on average - 13% lower than the overall daily average. This traditionally coincides with far warmer weather - the hottest day of last year was July 27.

In each of the last three leap years (2008, 2012 and 2016), December 31 - which would have been the 366th day of the year - has been the most common day to die.

New Year’s Day was the most common day in 2015 - the day after 2014’s highest day for deaths, which fell on December 31. Following the last decade’s pattern, New Year’s Eve would appear likely to have been 2018’s most popular day to die.

Expert comments

James Dunn, co-founder of after life services website Beyond said: "It may seem a morbid reality to be confronting so soon after Christmas, but January 6 is our very own ‘Day of the Dead’.

“Late December and early January are always going to be common times to die, with the cold weather raising the risk of infection in people who are already vulnerable.

“Often those who are sick and dying will target certain milestones to keep them going, so it is unsurprising to see higher numbers for the weeks following Christmas, as the thought of one final festive period helps sustain people until later in the month.

“However, death is a year-long reality, and while mourning the loss of loved ones, we should also celebrate their lives - there is a whole market full of different funeral options, and you can quickly and easily find ways to tailor a funeral to your needs online.

“Funerals in this country are moving away from the traditional model and towards more personalised and bespoke celebrations of life, as they ought to be.

“There is such a variety of options that the usual off-the-shelf packages of sombre men in black coats and hats are fast becoming redundant as demand grows for a shift away from ceremonial grief.”

Most common day to die each year 2005-17

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Whenever the dreaded Friday the 13th falls in the calendar, superstition reminds us that it's meant to be unlucky - but it looks as though there's an even more specific date to be worried about, as a recent study says that between 2005 and 2017, a larger percentage of people have on 6 January.

In fact, according to analysis of the figures held by the Office for National Statistics, the ten most common days to die on all fall between 30 December and 9 January.

As reported by the Mirror, statistics say 25 percent more people died on 6 January between 2005 and 2017. In other words, on average 1,732 people died on that date in comparison to the daily average of 1,387.

But why have more people died on the sixth day of the year over any other?

Inevitably, the answer isn't that sinister - the analysts have said frequently cold Januarys are the most likely reason.

Cold can be one factor. Credit: PA

Cold winter weather isn't nice for anyone, but it's particularly hard on those immune systems that run low because of the cold, damp and bloody horrible weather, or those whose immune systems are already lowered due to disease, age or other factors such as pregnancy.

People can then be left incredibly vulnerable due to all the infections going around, which can end up in increase in sudden health decline and, at times, death.

Nick Stripe of the Office for National Statistics told the Mirror: "The number of excess winter deaths in England and Wales in 2017 to 2018 was the highest recorded since the winter of 1975 to 1976.

"However, peaks like these are not unusual - we have seen more than eight peaks during the last 40 years."

6 January is the most common date for people to die in the UK. Credit: PA

Tragically, there is also a rise in suicides throughout January, as reported by the Samaritans who say post-Christmas times see a rise in calls from people suffering with depression and stress.

This is said to be brought on by the end of the festive season, coupled with stress caused by people going back to work.

Steve Cottle of the Shepell Research Group, which analyses mental health trends told the Telegraph: "Suicides and suicide attempts tend to peak following holidays, especially Christmas and early January following family and financial pressures over the festive period."

Take care of each other, everyone, especially over the next few weeks.

Featured Image Credit: Pixabay

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