Which of the following examples best shows how expectations can be self-fulfilling prophecies

By Eser Yilmaz, M.S., Ph.D.
​Reviewed by Tchiki Davis, M.A., Ph.D.

What is a self-fulfilling prophecy? Find out about the theory and research behind this concept and learn how you can avoid negative self-fulfilling prophecies.

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Have you ever predicted something in your life that later occurred just the way you expected? Maybe it was that you knew you’d give a terrible presentation, and just as you’d predicted, your speech was a rambling mess. Or, a few months ago, you had a feeling that your significant other would soon lose their interest in you, and lo-and-behold, you are single again.

Sometimes we just have that feeling deep inside that we know precisely how something will play out or how someone – or ourselves – will behave in a specific situation. And when our predictions come true, we perceive them as evidence that we know how people act or how the gears of society turn. But what if it is us and our beliefs that turn those gears and bring about the outcomes we expect? This may sound like a blurb of a science fiction novel, but it is a scientific concept we call a self-fulfilling prophecy. In this article, we’ll discuss the theory behind self-fulfilling prophecies and dig into the research about this concept. Furthermore, we will explore several examples of self-fulfilling prophecies and find out how we can prevent negative self-fulfilling prophecies from becoming a reality.​

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A self-fulfilling prophecy is a belief about a future event that leads people to act a certain way, ultimately bringing about the expected outcome. In other words, our expectations can come true by influencing our behaviors. A striking aspect of self-fulfilling prophecies is that these predictions may be divorced from objective reality at the beginning but have the power to alter people’s behavior in such a way that they become the new reality in the end.

Typically, a self-fulfilling prophecy consists of a three-step loop (figure 1). The first step is the prophecy itself, which is a person’s belief about a future outcome. The second step of the loop is the behavioral response. This might be the attitude of the person, their behavior as a response to their predictions, or it may include the reactions of others. The third step is when the prophecy comes true due to the actions in the second step. Moreover, the occurrence of the anticipated outcome confirms the original belief and primes the person to hold on to the same notion in similar situations in the future.

The concept of self-fulfilling prophecies has been known for millennia, as there are many examples in mythology and literature of several cultures. In fact, the philosopher Karl Popper named this same phenomenon “the Oedipus effect” in his book The Poverty of Historicism (Popper, 1957) after the Greek mythology character, Oedipus, who fulfills a tragic prophecy by taking actions to avoid it. Nonetheless, the widely-used term “self-fulfilling prophecy” was coined in the mid-20th century by a sociologist named Robert Merton (Merton, 1948). Let’s take a closer look at this concept and what sociology and psychology research has taught us about self-fulfilling prophecies.

Robert Merton’s notion of the self-fulfilling prophecy implies that an initially false social belief influences people’s actions in such a way that the original falsehood ultimately becomes true (Merton, 1948). One major inspiration for Merton’s idea was the Thomas theorem, which states that “If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences” (Thomas and Thomas, 1928). 

One of the most prominent examples of self-fulfilling prophecies in psychology research is the placebo vs. nocebo effect. Briefly, a placebo effect is observing a positive health outcome following an inactive treatment (Crum and Phillips, 2015). A nocebo effect is the opposite of this observation when the health outcome is negative (Crum and Phillips, 2015). In both cases, the health outcome is brought about by the power of belief; when the person believes they receive a beneficial treatment, they report positive changes to their health, but when they think they receive a harmful treatment, they report undesirable effects.

But what shapes a patient’s opinion about interventions, and what are the implications of placebo or nocebo effects? Many people’s views are influenced by the information they receive from their health care providers. Therefore, it is crucial for health care staff to keep in mind that the way they interact with and inform a patient might have a powerful effect on that patient’s treatment (Johnson, 2014). Moreover, in countries like the U.S., where pharmaceutical companies advertise their products directly to consumers, a patient’s perception of a treatment’s efficacy may be influenced by these advertisements, affecting their treatment outcomes (Kamenica, Naclerio, and Malani, 2013).

The self-fulfilling prophecy in a classic experiment
​In a classic experiment done in the 1960s, researchers chose two groups of students at random at an elementary school. They told the teachers that they identified the first group of students as “growth-spurters” who have a high potential for intellectual growth and the second group as the ordinary students who are expected to develop at an average pace (Rosenthal and Jacobson, 1968). 

Eight months later, when the researchers revisited the classrooms, they administered IQ tests to both groups of students and discovered that the students in the growth-spurter group tested significantly higher even though they were equal before (Rosenthal and Jacobson, 1968). Upon further inspection, the researchers noticed that the teachers’ expectations of a student changed their behavior toward them, such as giving the growth-spurter kids more attention and support, which then was internalized by the students to alter their self-beliefs and actions, resulting in a self-fulfilling prophecy about students’ intellectual growth (Rosenthal and Jacobson, 1968). Here is a video about the Pygmalion effect that you may enjoy.

Another prominent sociological concept based on self-fulfilling prophecies is the stereotype threat, in which the members of a group can be affected by the stereotypical notions about that group (Steele, 1997). For instance, female students are typically expected to perform worse than their male counterparts in science and math-related subjects (Steele, 1997). These gender-specific expectations eventually result in fewer women than men choosing fields such as engineering. Similarly, stereotype threat is also applicable to race; teachers often expect Black or Latino students to perform worse than white or Asian students (Steele, 1997), resulting in a self-fulfilling prophecy about student success in the classroom and beyond.

Self-fulfilling prophecies can have positive or negative effects, depending on the starting false belief. For instance, a placebo effect is a positive self-fulfilling prophecy, whereas a nocebo effect is a negative self-fulfilling prophecy. Similarly, a teacher’s opinion about a student can be positive or negative, affecting the student’s success by enhancing or weakening it.

When the original false belief is positive and leads to desirable effects, it may benefit the individual. For instance, if we believe that we can accomplish a difficult task and act accordingly, we may be more likely to achieve it. However, when the self-fulfilling prophecy is negative, it can potentially impact the person or society in undesirable ways. This may be especially detrimental when people’s actions are informed by false biases, such as negative opinions against groups of people based on their gender, race, religion, or sexual orientation.

There are many self-fulfilling prophecy examples around us. Here are a few that you might have heard about or witnessed. 

• Bank run: This example is one of Merton’s original ideas (Merton and Merton, 1968). It involves clients of a bank believing that the bank is about to cease function. Therefore, the clients rush to the bank, withdrawing all their money. If many clients empty their accounts, the bank may run out of funds, become destabilized, and cease its functions. 
  

• Strikebreakers: This example is also one of Merton’s observations. In short, in the early 20th century, many believed that African American workers were strikebreakers, which caused the labor unions to shun them. This caused African American workers to struggle to find and keep stable jobs. Therefore, many had to fill positions during strikes, fulfilling the prophecy that they were strikebreakers (Merton, 1948).
  

• Dangerous slums: This type of labeling starts when part of the population believes that one of their city’s neighborhoods is becoming a slum. This belief causes worried families who can afford to move away to leave that neighborhood for places that are perceived as safer, leaving the poor, less-educated, or unemployed residents behind. The housing prices may drop, allowing more poor people to move into vacated homes. Moreover, policing may increase in the so-called slum, leading to more arrests, further expanding the notion that the neighborhood is crime-ridden and unsafe.
  

• Bad wedding: A bride and groom, Jill and Jim, worry that something may ruin their wedding and their guests won’t be able to enjoy themselves. By trying to micromanage every little detail and making unreasonable requests, they anger their closest friends and family members, causing some of them to attend the wedding in a foul mood and others to be too upset to enjoy it. 
  

Whether intimate, between friends, or within a family, relationships are constantly shaped by individuals' actions. And since the actions and behaviors of individuals are informed by their thoughts, beliefs, and expectations, numerous examples of self-fulfilling prophecies occur in relationships. Here are a few examples.

• Disinterested partner: Ashley has been dating Arun for nearly a year. Although she and Arun enjoy each other’s company and love one another dearly, Ashley suspects that Arun will start losing interest in her within the next few months. Ashley buys expensive clothes and lingerie and gets a stylish haircut before their weeklong vacation to ensure Arun's continued interest. When Arun picks Ashley up, he doesn’t notice her new clothes or haircut right away. To make matters worse, he gets tired after driving for hours and falls asleep as soon as he steps into the hotel room before seeing Ashley’s new lingerie. Ashley gets upset and acts infuriated the entire week. Whenever Arun asks what happened, she blames him for not loving her anymore. Neither Arun nor Ashley enjoys the vacation. After their return, Arun starts acting cautiously to avoid upsetting Ashley, which she interprets as a sign of his slipping interest. A few weeks later, they break up. 

• The lousy seed: Yvonne has two children: Boris and Estelle. Yvonne thinks she has always loved her children equally. Yet, she’s given most of her attention to Boris ever since he was born, claiming there’s something special about him. Boris continues to live near Yvonne and visits her every day. Estelle has left for college and sees Yvonne every few years. Yvonne is upset that Estelle turned out to be so uncaring and callous but feels happy to have predicted Boris would be such a great son.

• Cheating spouse: Denise has never liked working out. Yet, a few months ago, she discovered a new cycling class that she enjoys. Her husband Julian is puzzled by Denise’s sudden desire to go to the gym or get in shape and thinks there must be another reason. So, he suspects Denise is interested in another man. When Julian confronts Denise, she is surprised that he doesn’t trust her. Denise stops going to the gym, but Julian continues to think Denise must be having an affair and brings up his suspicions at every opportunity, and often calls her a cheater. A few weeks later, Denise travels for a conference. There she meets a charming executive who buys her a drink. When Denise invites him to her hotel room, she thinks, “why not? Julian thinks I'm cheating on him anyway.”

• Wicked stepparent: Thirteen-year-old Lydia is upset that her father is marrying Shima. Lydia thinks Shima won’t be a loving stepmother and will ruin her relationship with her father. Every time Shima is around, Lydia starts acting up. Lydia’s behavior becomes more erratic after the wedding. Eventually, Shima talks to her husband about how her stepdaughter’s behavior upsets her. He talks to Lydia and tells her to apologize to Shima. Lydia refuses, which causes her father to get angry. Lydia feels her father’s reaction has one explanation: her wicked stepmother succeeded in ruining Lydia’s relationship with her father. ​

• Boys are better at math: Chantelle and Jamal are twins learning algebra at school. At first, Chantelle understands the concepts quickly. Jamal struggles with some ideas and turns in the assignments he copies from Chantelle. Their math teacher Mr. Knowles praises the precision and details in Jamal’s homework assignments and doesn’t acknowledge anything about Chantelle’s. Moreover, he rarely picks Chantelle when she raises her hand to answer a question. Jamal feels encouraged to do better and pays more attention in class, whereas Chantelle starts to daydream during math. At the end of the school year, Chantelle starts turning in the assignments she copies from Jamal.

• Stereotype threat: Khalid is a fifth-grader whose family has recently moved to the U.S. from Syria. Khalid’s parents don’t speak English well and work as line cooks. Khalid’s classmate, Ling, is also a recent immigrant who moved from China after Ling’s father accepted a faculty position at a nearby university. Their teacher, Ms. White, believes Khalid won’t perform as well as her other students, whereas she expects Ling to excel in every subject. So, she gives more attention to Ling and barely acknowledges Khalid’s presence. At the end of the school year, Ling performs better than all other students, whereas Khalid struggles with most subjects, both students fulfilling the prophecy about their educational fates. ​

As discussed earlier, negative self-fulfilling prophecies may affect an individual’s success, happiness, and general well-being. If we are caught in the cycle of a negative self-fulfilling prophecy about ourselves, we may be putting obstacles on our journeys. Therefore, we might want to consider the validity of our opinions before letting them influence our actions. 

For example, suppose you wake up in the morning before a job interview and think that your interview will be a total bust. In that case, you might enter the interview room with a negative attitude, look hesitant, have low confidence in your skills, and may sound unprepared or inconsistent when you answer questions. 

How can you avoid fulfilling the prophecy of a disastrous interview? Asking yourself why you think you will perform poorly is a good start. If you determine the underlying reason for your beliefs, you might be able to address them on time. In the long term, working towards improving your self-confidence and self-worth may help you avoid having negative thoughts about yourself, thus preventing negative self-fulfilling prophecies from becoming new realities. 

Similarly, our self-fulfilling prophecies may also affect other people or change the fabric of society by strengthening negative opinions and biases against certain individuals or populations. We can avoid these negative self-fulfilling prophecies by recognizing what is prejudice and what is an accurate observation. We can accomplish this by educating ourselves and others around us and questioning the validity of opinions by requesting evidence or more information.

​Want to learn more? Check out these articles:

If you’d like to keep learning more, here are a few books that you might be interested in.

Self-fulfilling prophecies are false beliefs that cause people to act in a certain way, which results in the occurrence of the original predictions. Sociology and psychology research has provided a lot of information about how self-fulfilling prophecies can affect individuals or populations, and there are numerous everyday examples of self-fulfilling prophecies we can learn from. Moreover, given that self-fulfilling prophecies can be positive or negative, we might benefit from boosting positive self-fulfilling prophecies and avoiding negative ones. 

• Crum, A., & Phillips, D. J. (2015). Self-fulfilling prophesies, placebo effects, and the social-psychological creation of reality. Emerging trends in the social and behavioral sciences, 1-14.
• Johnson, J. A. (2014). Placebo/Nocebo/Tomato Effect… It’s All About Attitude, Perception, and Expectation. Journal for nurses in professional development, 30(5), 264-265.
• Kamenica, E., Naclerio, R., & Malani, A. (2013). Advertisements impact the physiological efficacy of a branded drug. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(32), 12931-12935.
• Merton, R. K. (1948). The self-fulfilling prophecy. The Antioch Review, 8(2), 193-210.
• Merton, R. K., & Merton, R. C. (1968). Social theory and social structure. Simon and Schuster.
• Popper, K. R. (1957). The poverty of historicism. London: Routledge & Kegan Paul.
• Rosenthal, R., & Jacobson, L. (1968). Pygmalion in the classroom. The Urban Review, 3(1), 16-20.
• Thomas, W. I., & Thomas, D. S. (1928). The child in America. Oxford: Knopf.